Black Sea war risk premiums surge

Black Sea war risk premiums surge

War risk insurance costs for vessels trading in the Black Sea have surged dramatically as new attacks on Russia-linked ships raise security concerns across the region’s commercial lanes. According to figures shared by Marsh, the world’s largest insurance broker, premiums for calling at certain Ukrainian ports have more than tripled, with some underwriters now quoting rates as high as 1% of a vessel’s value. Before the escalation, standard premiums ranged from 0.25% to 0.3%.

Rising Attacks on Russia-Linked Tonnage Intensify Market Risk

Ukraine has claimed responsibility for strikes on two tankers associated with Russia’s so-called shadow fleet, while two additional incidents involving Moscow-linked ships were reported over the past few days. These vessel-specific attacks follow a broader series of strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, contributing to rapidly rising maritime insurance costs and operational uncertainty for owners engaged in sea freight operations in the region.

Russian president Vladimir Putin responded by warning that Moscow may expand retaliatory actions if such attacks continue. He also suggested Russia could target vessels belonging to countries supporting Ukraine, calling the latest strikes “piracy” and signalling a potential widening of the conflict’s maritime dimension.

Drone Threats Add to Navigational Hazards

The Romanian military confirmed yesterday that it destroyed a maritime drone—identified as a Ukrainian-developed Sea Baby—after detecting it 36 nautical miles east of Constanta. Officials said the device posed an immediate threat to navigation in one of the region’s busiest corridors.

Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey are continuing joint operations to clear drifting mines, a persistent hazard since Russia’s 2022 invasion. More than 150 mines have been found and neutralised to date, posing ongoing risks to commercial vessels, insurers and charterers.

Regional Security Remains Fragile

Turkey’s foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, described the recent tanker attacks as “very scary,” warning that they jeopardise the safety of all shipping in the Black Sea and reflect the expanding reach of the conflict. Fidan has since consulted with NATO secretary general Mark Rutte on measures to strengthen maritime security in the corridor.

With war risk premiums surging and attacks becoming more frequent, operators engaged in sea freight and energy transportation are increasingly reassessing routing, insurance strategies, and vessel deployment in the Black Sea.