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Biomethane Supply May Fall Short of Shipping’s 2030 Needs
Global biomethane production could expand significantly by 2030, but infrastructure, certification systems and regulatory barriers may prevent enough supply from reaching the shipping industry, according to the Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping (MMMCZCS).
The centre estimates that global biomethane supply could reach around 21 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2030 under its base-case scenario. While this represents substantial growth, shipping’s ability to access that supply will depend on the development of methane-capable vessels, bunkering infrastructure and internationally recognised certification mechanisms.
Global Biomethane Supply Could Reach 21 bcm by 2030
Under MMMCZCS's base-case outlook, global biomethane production could reach approximately 21 bcm in 2030.
The centre estimates that the IMO's proposed Net-Zero Framework (NZF) could generate low-emissions marine fuel demand equivalent to approximately 29.7 bcm of biomethane by the end of the decade if biomethane alone were used to satisfy that requirement.
On that basis, projected base-case biomethane production could theoretically cover around 70% of the fuel demand created by the framework.
A more ambitious policy-driven expansion could significantly change the picture.
Under a faster-growth scenario, global biomethane supply could reach approximately 52 bcm by 2030, exceeding the estimated NZF-induced requirement.
However, overall production volumes do not necessarily indicate how much biomethane will actually be available to shipping.
Shipping Could Absorb Significant Biomethane Volumes
The development of the methane-fuelled fleet will be an important factor in determining maritime demand.
MMMCZCS estimates that if all methane-fuelled container vessels were to operate using liquefied biomethane (LBM), the shipping sector could consume approximately 11 million tonnes of LSFO-equivalent biomethane by 2030.
That would represent around 56% of the projected 21 bcm base-case global supply.
The figures demonstrate that shipping could become a significant biomethane consumer as more methane-capable vessels enter service.
However, having sufficient global production will not automatically guarantee that those volumes can be delivered economically to ships.
Mass Balancing Could Be Critical for Maritime Biomethane
One of the most important requirements identified by MMMCZCS is the development of a recognised mass-balancing system.
Mass balancing allows biomethane to be injected into an existing natural gas grid while its environmental attributes are allocated to maritime fuel consumption elsewhere through a certified chain of custody.
This means the physical biomethane molecules would not necessarily need to be transported directly from their production facility to the vessel consuming the fuel.
Without a globally recognised mass-balancing framework, shipping could instead be forced to depend on physically segregated biomethane supply chains.
MMMCZCS warned that establishing and scaling such dedicated supply chains would be both difficult and expensive.
Methane-Fuelled Fleet and Bunkering Capacity Must Expand
Fleet development represents another potential constraint.
Biomethane can only be consumed by ships equipped to burn methane-based fuels, meaning maritime demand will depend partly on how quickly the global methane-capable fleet expands.
Bunkering infrastructure must develop alongside the fleet.
Additional bunker barges, storage facilities and terminal capacity would be required to make biomethane commercially accessible across major shipping hubs.
Without sufficient infrastructure, available biomethane production may not translate into usable marine fuel supply.
Other Industries Will Compete With Shipping for Biomethane
Shipping will also face competition from other sectors seeking lower-emissions energy sources.
Even if global biomethane production reaches the projected 21 bcm base-case level, those volumes will not be reserved exclusively for maritime use.
Higher demand from other industries could therefore reduce the amount available to shipowners and fuel suppliers.
This competition means that feedstock availability may not be the principal constraint facing maritime biomethane adoption.
Instead, certification, regulation, infrastructure, fleet capability and competition between end users could determine how much of the growing global biomethane market ultimately reaches shipping.
Infrastructure Could Determine Biomethane’s Maritime Role
Biomethane has the potential to contribute significantly to shipping's transition towards lower-emissions fuels, particularly as the methane-capable fleet continues to expand.
However, MMMCZCS's analysis indicates that achieving sufficient production is only one part of the challenge.
A globally recognised mass-balancing framework, expanded bunkering infrastructure and greater methane-capable vessel capacity will be critical if shipping is to access biomethane at scale by 2030.
Without progress in these areas, the maritime industry's usable biomethane supply could remain substantially below theoretical global availability, even as overall production increases.
